Why it's Trump's to lose now (seriously)

An expert who has successfully predicted every US presidential election since 1984 forecasts a Trump victory on November 8.

His historic-scientific "keys to the presidency", a 13-point system, posits that if the incumbent party (Democrats this year) fails on six or more of the following points or "keys", it will lose the White House to the challenging party. As such, he notes five guaranteed strikes already against Hillary (highlighted red), with a sixth possible (orange).

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 

If anything, one can easily see how things are actually considerably worse for Mrs. Clinton. I would personally add four more key strikes (or near strikes) against her:

2. Bernie seriously challenged Hillary for the incumbent party nomination.
6. Per capita GDP growth in Obama's second term clearly tailed off compared to his first term (notwithstanding a bump in household income last year).
8. We've seen plenty of social unrest reminiscent of the sixties just in the past year and a half.
10. Syria has been a fiasco and it's only getting worse - and the Democrats won't be able to keep it off the election's radar.

Finally, key 13 is another questionable: Donald Trump sure is charismatic, and though he may not be a hero at all, much of the electorate seems to want a villain anyway.

So by this coldly scientific-historic assessment, it's actually Trump's to lose now. And few of us doubt how he'll lose - in fact, why he's still trailing in the polls.